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Beware! A bear ambush will slaughter the ‘cats and dogs’


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Beware! A bear ambush will slaughter the ‘cats and dogs’

SynopsisA major trend in the current market is the sharp rise in the number of retail investors. A large numbers of new accounts have been opened, many of them by the millennials from Tier II and III cities.Markets and BeyondVK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial ServicesHe is known for his articles on capital markets,…

Synopsis

A famous vogue in the most up-to-date market is the appealing upward thrust in the sequence of retail investors. A mountainous numbers of original accounts bear been opened, a quantity of them by the millennials from Tier II and III cities.

Markets and Beyond

VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Monetary Services

He is well-known for his articles on capital markets, wealth management, and Indian and world economy. He has offered many papers and delivered many lectures on the capital market in nationwide and world seminars. He has authored four books on economics, offered eight papers in world seminars and 65 papers in nationwide seminars.

On the whole, the stamp of a stock rises when the market expects the possibilities of the firm to beef up. In the very short bustle, technical elements be pleased short masking may perchance perchance cause spurts in stock prices. But when the stock of a bankrupt telecom firm is locked in higher circuit repeatedly for a range of days and the stamp doubles in a short interval, how will we demonstrate that?

Irrational exuberance? Hyper-speculative bid? A cartel at work? Ignorant gullible investors being taken for a mosey? It will be all or any of these.

Many low-grade shares bear been hitting higher circuits and witnessing hyper-speculative bid in fresh days and weeks. The conclusion is easy. There may perchance be a bubble in penny shares and this bubble will burst.

The retail stock lag


A famous vogue in the most up-to-date market is the appealing upward thrust in the sequence of retail investors. A mountainous numbers of original accounts bear been opened, a quantity of them by the millennials from Tier II and III cities. Here is a trim vogue and is to be welcomed. Family savings coming into financial belongings is a trim and healthy vogue.

On the other hand, there is an dwelling of hysteria. A range of these original retail investors are trading/speculating in the market for short-term gains. Trading is a nil-sum game. Lengthy-term systematic funding in right quality shares/right mutual funds creates wealth, but uncomfortable quality shares and funds can extinguish it. This distinction is serious.

Blind to this valuable distinction, many original investors are investing in low-grade shares – ‘cats and canines’ in stock market language. Costs of a quantity of such shares bear been pushed as a lot as unjustifiable levels. Stock prices of many bankrupt companies bear been hitting higher circuits for plenty of days repeatedly. Here is a highly stressful, unhealthy and unsustainable vogue. For a range of retail investors, this game is going to quit in be troubled.

Economy-market disconnect


A famous level of debate in the stock market now may perchance well well be the economy-market disconnect: rising markets in struggling economies. The world economy is in a severe recession; but globally stock markets are up by round 40 per cent from their March lows. This world rally is pushed essentially by three elements: Plentiful liquidity created by central banks, in particular the US Fed; historically low hobby charges and expectations of a rebound in yell and earnings in 2021.

If these expectations originate materialise, the rally can also simply preserve. But, it’s miles serious to be pleased the undeniable truth that valuations are high and since the industrial environment is extremely challenged, some triggers may perchance perchance cause appealing corrections in the market.

Cats and canines will be slaughtered


Blue chips, even when costly, will survive personal onslaughts. They’re going to leap back. But ‘cats and canines’ will be slaughtered in a personal ambush. As explained earlier, this bull bustle is pushed essentially by liquidity. Since the macro-environment is extremely traumatic, a pointy correction can happen any time. Therefore, investors can also simply easy be vigilant.

The suitable insurance coverage in this market is to terminate with quality. Quality largecaps will survive personal onslaughts, but penny shares will be thrashed. This has took dwelling many cases previously. History will repeat itself. Stay faraway from penny shares. Conclude invested in quality. Conclude safe!

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the author. The info and opinions expressed here originate no longer reflect the views of www.economictimes.com.)

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